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| odp, suicide, refer, patriot act, drum'n'bass, new, geeks, unsigned bands, faculty staff, digital photography, stone cold, music reviews, obscene, php, drums, tshirthell.com, tee, woman, bill hicks, mom mature son gallery., tv shows, | Here are the percentages: 1 year forward: If you're free right away, your chances of being free a year later are 96.9%. If you're partly free? Your chances of being free are 4.7%. And if you swap one form of nondemocracy for another? 0.2%. 5 years forward: Start out fully free, you're still free 90.2% of the time. Start out partly free, your chances of full incesttaboo freedom are 15.8%. And if you just changed the brand name of your chains: 3.3%. 10 years forward: Free (86.1%), Partly Free (22.1%), New version of NonFree (8.4%) 15 years forward: Free (82.7%), Partly Free (26.2%), New version of NonFree (15.7%) 20 years forward: Free (80.6), Partly Free (30.1%), New version of NonFree (20.4%). Applying this to the Iraq experience At the most optiistic, Iraq has enjoyed two years of Partly Free status; based on the persistency table, Iraq's presumably fully free, untampered January elections have an 8.3% chance of sticking this year, based on the 4962 2-year cases available to me. But there's good news: 10 years down the road, there's a 22% chance of success. |
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| In the former Soviet sphere, the only countries that are still free (some of them now NATO and EU music reviews countries!) are those that went full-bore to freedom. The only ones that aren't, or music reviews are sliding back to tyranny, are those where half-measures were attempted, half-heartedly. In 9 out of 9 starts, a former Soviet-sphere country that began with full democracy still had it 10 years later. In 4 out of 18 starts (22.2% of the time), a former Soviet-sphere country that began with partial freedom had full freedom 10 years later. In 6 out of 18 starts (33.3% of the time), a former Soviet-sphere country that began with partial freedom had returned to tyranny 10 years later. The other 8 (44.4% frequency) had mulled about in semi-freedom. In 2 of 2 instances, countries beginning in nonfree conditions (Georgia and Bosnia) had attained partial freedom. The experience of the rest of the world bears this out. The statistics are impeccable, being based on almost 5,000 country-year cases: the only way to be free, or to be made free, is to be thrown into the deep end of the pool. |
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